employee
Vladivostok, Vladivostok, Russian Federation
student
This article examines the electoral transformation of the U.S. Rust Belt–a traditionally industrial region that for decades constituted a core component of the Democratic Party’s electoral coalition–over the period from the 1990s to the 2020s. The aim of the study is to identify the causes, dynamics, and mechanisms underlying the shift from stable Democratic dominance to the emergence of a Republican advantage in key states of the region (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The methodological framework combines an analysis of electoral data from presidential, midterm, and state-level elections with comparative regional analysis, interpreted through the lenses of party realignment theory, the concept of cultural backlash, and economic voting theory. The findings demonstrate that the electoral shift in the Rust Belt is asymmetric and incomplete. Deindustrialization and related socioeconomic changes created the structural foundation for rising political discontent; however, the conversion of this discontent into durable partisan preferences was mediated by cultural-identitarian and institutional factors, including the decline of labor unions and transformations in party strategies. The article’s scholarly contribution lies in conceptualizing the electoral transformation of the Rust Belt not as a completed party realignment, but as a dynamic process of coalition restructuring driven by the interaction of economic shocks, cultural conflict, and institutional change.
Rust Belt; electoral transformation; electoral behavior; party competition; deindustrialization; cultural backlash; regional polarization; United States of America
1. Autor D., Dorn D., Hanson G., Majlesi K. Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure. American Economic Review. 2020. Vol. 110. No. 10. P. 3139–3183. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20170011
2. Ballotpedia. Ohio gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2022 // Encyclopedia of American Politics. URL: https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_gubernatorial_and_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2022 (accessed 14.02.2026).
3. Ballotpedia. Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District // Encyclopedia of American Politics. URL: https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania%27s_1st_Congressional_District (accessed 14.02.2026).
4. Ballotpedia. United States Senate election in Ohio, 2024 // Encyclopedia of American Politics. URL: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio,_2024 (accessed 14.02.2026).
5. Ballotpedia. United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016 // Encyclopedia of American Politics. URL: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2016 (accessed 14.02.2026).
6. Ballotpedia. United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2024 // Encyclopedia of American Politics. URL: https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2024 (accessed 14.02.2026).
7. Burnham W. D. Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics. New York: W. W. Norton, 1970. 320 p.
8. CNN. Election 2016: Exit polls. 2016. URL: https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls (accessed 14.02.2026).
9. Cramer K. J. The Politics of Resentment: Rural Consciousness in Wisconsin and the Rise of Scott Walker. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2016. 288 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226349251.001.0001
10. Mutz D. C. Status Threat, Not Economic Hardship, Explains the 2016 Presidential Vote. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2018. Vol. 115. No. 19. P. E4330–E4339. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1718155115
11. Norris P., Inglehart R. Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, and Authoritarian Populism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019. 540 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108595841
12. Pennsylvania Department of State. Official returns. Representative in Congress. URL: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/_ENR/General/OfficeResults?OfficeID=11&ElectionID=94&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0 (accessed 14.02.2026).
13. Pennsylvania Department of State. Official returns. United States Senator, Governor. URL: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/_ENR/General/SummaryResults?ElectionID=94&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0 (accessed 14.02.2026).
14. Rosenfeld J. What Unions No Longer Do. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2014. 320 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4159/harvard.9780674726215
15. Sides J., Tesler M., Vavreck L. Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2018. 376 p. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvc77mmb
16. USA.gov. Congressional and Presidential Election Results: 2016 Election Statistics. 2016. URL: https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2016.pdf (accessed 14.02.2026).
17. USA.gov. Congressional and Presidential Election Results: 2020 Election Statistics. 2020. URL: https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/federalelections2020.pdf (accessed 14.02.2026).
18. USA.gov. Congressional and Presidential Election Results: 2024 Election Statistics. 2024. URL: https://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2024/statistics2024.pdf (accessed 14.02.2026).
